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A few personal views about BTC short & long term

    The article purely personal views, his views on BTC. I will interpret in the form of questions and answers so that people know what I mean most. *** This is just a personal opinion & private investment strategy.


    Q: Has BTC been in the big uptrend yet?


    TL:

    First of all, it should be understood that the big uptrend is the fact that BTC escapes the trend completely, rising to a very large milestone such as several tens or hundreds of K $. You can imagine it uptrend like 2016 - 2017, many times down but very short, later soar and set new highs.

    You can see the overall picture of BTC trend of the image below:


    3 previous trends of BTC include: Accumulation, uptrend and downtrend

    Now the main answer: Is BTC in big uptrend yet? BTC has had really strong weekly candles and internal strength, months of suffering are quickly erased in just over a month. The price has crossed the MA20 very far, which is a very important milestone in the week frame. However, I think that BTC has not entered the big uptrend yet, my opinion is that BTC will not start the journey to tens of K or higher at this time.

    There are two reasons I make such a personal argument:

    1, I think the rate of reduction from 19K8 to 3K is very good, completely enough to turn the reversal, but the time is still too short. The graph on the accumulation period is very short compared to the previous history of BTC and compared to other financial / investment markets such as Gold, BDS, CK and oil, etc. In the history of bubble charts, each graph has a different accumulation period, even like Dotcom, the cumulative sideway time is very short, so I do not dare to conclude, just predictions.

    2, I am not optimistic about the global economic situation, trade war between the US and China, especially I think the stock market is very bad.


    The chart of BTC (Logarithms) and the idea of ​​BTC rising to hundreds of Ks is available online
    The chart of BTC (Logarithms) and the idea of ​​BTC rising to hundreds of Ks is available online

    I assess that the market will remain in the basic sideway trend, there is no breakthrough in prices both up and down for at least the next 5 6 years.

    Q: What is the peak of this rally of BTC?


    A: I didn't find it, nor do I have any data to predict the price at which the BTC will reach. Since BTC fell below 3K and sideway, there were two major hurdles on the weekly frame: 4K (downtrend resistance) and 6K important resistance of 2017 and 2018. BTC overcame both fairly easily:


    2 most important resistance levels of BTC according to the weekly frame
    2 most important resistance levels of BTC according to the weekly frame

    So at the present time there is no exact number for BTC. A lot of people have followed the paths like 4Kx short, 5Kx short, 6Kx still short, up to 7K short. That is not recommended, especially when we are completely uncertain about the next trend. At the level of overcoming 4K is the time I hold BTC, at 6K9 stop escaping because of touching the middle border (MA20) if the month, I absolutely do not know where BTC will go so based on it to exit.

    I believe a lot of people, like me, can embrace the price of 4Kx, even 3Kx and hold. A lot of people have predicted that BTC will rise to 6K, but I believe that it is possible to predict BTC to 7k5 in May when it is still 4Kx - 5K, very few people do not even have exactly. Going through a round of Tradingview and some PT people, most of them were caught up in BTC to some level A, B, C and then adjusted, in fact you see BTC adjustment is not significant, but going one circuit is more correct. Even I saw quite a lot of FB calling to run right away, or short all socks BTC a few weeks ago.

    There are many tragedies with successful bottom-fishing BTC traders, after catching the bottom, they sell at 5Kx, which is very successful. But not yet, they think that BTC will fall back (not reduce selling stars) and short BTC, of ​​course, they are tied with DCA and have lost all bottom catches, lost more accounts.

    If I had to choose a peak of BTC this time, maybe I chose always 7k5. But if BTC returns to 7k5 again, I will buy again.

    BTC short term like?


    In the H4 frame after a very strong purchase, BTC has made a clear adjustment. The fomo BTC in recent days is very terrible. In most frames like D3 and D1, it also shows that BTC will have to go into correction when RSI has reached the levels of 85, 90. It has been nearly two years since we witnessed the terrible trend of BTC purchase. RSI is back over 70, 80 after nearly 2 years.


    RSI BTC D3, back to the fomo after 2 years of separation
    RSI BTC D3, back to the fomo after 2 years of separation

    Many people think that BTC will drop back to 5K before going uptrend (probably due to data on D1), but I do not think so. If BTC returns to 5K, there will be no uptrend. The most feasible drop if desired to increase further to about 6K3. Right now you should set SL at 6880, it is necessary to protect your account.

    Altcoin like?


    This will also be a question that many people are interested in, basically Altcoin difficult to judge because it depends on the trend of BTC, which BTC itself does not know how. There are 2 streams of opinions about Altcoin prices:

    1, Altcoin has risen sharply since before BTC increased, most coins have X3 to x5, x7 times. So this time the BTC is more than enough and all dropped sharply, especially when the number of holders holding BTC is not much.

    2, After BTC rises, BTC will sideway, Altcoin will have another rally topping up, commensurate with the way the price runs. Actually 2 today, Altcoin has made good changes, but still local and not sure.

    Statistics 2017, 2018, no matter how big BTC is holding Altcoin, it is still more profitable, of course, even this small upstart, Altcoin like BCH, LTC, ADA, etc. has an impressive increase than BTC's X2.

    Situation BTC entered the big uptrend, Altcoin will not follow. Situation BTC decreased, Altcoin will plummet, only BTC sideway here Altcoin to gain strength. On 11/05, on the internet, some people who uploaded BTC were king, and when their champion, they transferred the entire BTC to BCH, seeing unexpected results. However, I sold all today when it was determined that BTC had a downward adjustment on May 13, but the price dropped earlier than I thought. Altcoin now I mainly watch BTC, just a few days BTC does not fall I will continue to buy BCH again.


    I transferred all the BTC on blockchain.com into BCH on 11/05 and withdrew BCH to Huobi for sale today
    I transferred all the BTC on blockchain.com into BCH on 11/05 and withdrew BCH to Huobi for sale today

    Are you still trading BTC?


    I have yet to trade BTC back, even after this event. I only HOLD BTC, not trade. Regarding trade, I will focus entirely on Forex, it seems more attractive to me. Regarding my hold selection, there are still 3 familiar coins: BTC, BCH and Ada.

    I have lost all my enthusiasm and enthusiasm since BTC broke 6,000 (times of decline), and it was difficult to put some capital like before back to the market. I will hold BTC as a form of investment: Buy each month about $ 1k5 - $ 2k, previously I bought the amount of BTC, but now the price fluctuates so high so I fixed according to the monthly amount. This is how I have been doing it for months.

    Most people want to find opportunities by catching the right trend, hitting big money and changing their lives. I replaced that with a slow hold, until I saw enough investment, I stopped. Partly because of his capital, most of his investment in other areas.

    Personal advice


    Trade for people who are really good and agile and disciplined. Which market, whichever level is low, it's still holes. Trade when you have the level and knowledge. Do not trade because it is an industry that makes money or sees an opportunity. As for hold, you can hold it, but don't give up one piece of gamble, buy accumulation. The reward will be at a good level for the person who chooses the right fit, and pays the price for someone who takes a short, long bite.

    Statistical data


    The number of people who are interested in BTC has rebounded sharply, their Group when talking about FB only 3-5 online. BCH X4 is only a few people, so is ADA x4, but BTC X2 has over 300 people online. That is enough to see the influence and importance of BTC in the day market.

    Is the trading volume of BTC on CoinMarketCap the highest of all time? - This is wrong, because most of the volume on CMC has been fake vol for almost 1 year. Where the whole floor where vol several billion dollars. The actual volume can be found in Binance, Bitfinex, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Bitmex, Kraken etc. Even Huobi has a fake vol.

    Bitcoin Hash Rate rebounded sharply in early May, after months of stagnation.

    Finally, sticking to the market and adjusting your plans are very important when trading, wish you success ^^

    Hoai Phong

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